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Millennium Development Goals

Pakistani school children © United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network

Pakistan is home to a significant proportion of the world’s poor. Over 30% of the country’s 150 million people survive beneath the poverty line. In rural areas, literacy of women is as low as 20%. A history of high government spending on military and business interests has been at the expense of health and education facilities. Little more than 1.7% of the national budget is allocated to education and the drop-out rate from primary schools is thought to be the highest in the world, leaving many children to approach adulthood through the inappropriate experience of factory labour or unregulated religious madrasa schools. About 1.5 million children are believed to attend madrasas, some of which are suspected of fermenting Islamist extremism in defiance of government attempts to monitor their curriculum.

The government's progress report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) indicates that Pakistan is way behind in achieving the Goals, especially in health and education sectors. No concrete data for recent poverty levels is provided and the report concedes that recent impressive economic growth has not necessarily benefited the poor due to inequitable distribution. Low awareness about the MDGs amongst both public and private sectors allows the government to escape censure for inaction, for example, its exceptionally low spending on health. The rate of maternal mortality actually increased in the period 2000-2005. The shortage of qualified teachers and health workers was tragically accentuated by the loss of life in the earthquake that shattered the region surrounding Muzaffarabad in October 2005.

On a more positive note, there are signs of structural change in moves towards decentralisation of government powers – a shift which development agencies have recommended as a means for health services in particular to reach areas where they are most needed. The Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and the Medium Term Development Framework 2005-2010 have both been realigned with the MDGs and Pakistan continues to attract generous aid programmes.

Politics

Inadequate attention to poverty in the allocation of national resources may reflect the disenfranchisement of the poor themselves, in contrast to the fully-fledged democracy in neighbouring India. Successive governments in Pakistan have abused and tinkered with the country’s constitution, creating a corrupt political culture, weak civil society, severe human rights violations and lack of tolerance in society. The people of Pakistan have never tasted the real fruits of democracy, the absence of which has given birth to ethnic and inter-provincial disputes and discord, political feuds and religious hostility.

Pakistani soldiers © AP/Out There News

The current regime typifies the track record. A military coup in 1999 appointed the head of the army, General Pervez Musharraf, as president. With powers to dismiss the elected government backed by strong influence over the judiciary, Musharraf and his senior generals have been able to steer the legislative programme and electoral procedures. Parliamentary elections in 2002 returned a majority for the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q), a party supportive of the president.

Subsequent gestures towards a return to democracy have been unconvincing. Musharraf himself has extended his presidential term to 2007 and in 2004 reneged on a promise to separate his roles of president and head of the army, a combination disallowed by the constitution. However the controversial suspension and subsequent reinstatement of the independent-minded Chief Justice, Iftikhar Choudry, may have united the judiciary against any further abuse of constitutional procedures. With both presidential and parliamentary elections due later in 2007, Musharraf is coming under tremendous pressure to restore true democracy by separating the military from the political process.

Pakistan is a federation of four ethnic provinces Balochistan, North West Frontier, Punjab and Sindh and three administrative areas Azad Kashmir, Ladakh and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It has a bicameral Parliament consisting of the Senate and National Assembly. The Senate is a permanent legislative body of 100 members for which the four Provincial Assemblies, FATA and Federal Capital form the electoral college. The National Assembly has a total membership of 342 elected through adult suffrage. The prime minister, currently Shaukat Aziz, is elected by members of the National Assembly. The president is elected by a college including both parliamentary bodies and the provincial assemblies – for this reason Musharraf’s timing of the 2007 election – before or after the parliamentary election – will be vital.

The main parties in opposition to General Musharraf are the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA). The PPP is a pro-democracy party which sides with international calls for Pakistan to abandon military rule. The MMA is an alliance of "religious parties" backed and sponsored by Saudi Arabia's wahabi or sunni school of thought. The MMA opposes Musharraf because of his relationship with the US and because of his operations against the Taliban who also belong to the wahabi sect. There are strong rumours that Musharraf may seek to bolster his flagging fortunes through an alliance with former prime minister and PPP leader, Benazir Bhutto. It is surmised that he would agree to resign from the army in return for dropping corruption charges that she and her associates face in Pakistan.
The Afghanistan Factor

The rise of General Musharraf brought widespread condemnation from the international community, symbolised by the expulsion of Pakistan from The Commonwealth in 1999. The subsequent return to favour, despite no meaningful concessions to democratic governance, is attributable to one factor – the “war on terror”. As it became clear that the US intended to achieve regime change in neighbouring Afghanistan by force in 2001, Pakistan was faced with a difficult choice – to retain its sympathies towards the Taliban or side with the superpower and prevent an “axis of evil” from stretching uninterrupted from Tehran to Kabul.

Musharraf chose the latter course and, in return, the aid dollars and military hardware flow in profusion, any conditionality focused more on action against terrorism than good governance. The Bush administration has cancelled $1 billion of debt and provided about $10 billion since 2001, while remittances from the Pakistani diaspora in the US have increased exponentially in recent years. Not to be outdone, the European Commission has decided to quadruple its intended aid for Pakistan in the period 2007-2013.

There are however regular protests that Pakistan’s cooperation with the war on terror has not been as wholehearted as it should, especially after a September 2006 agreement allowing tribal groups in North Waziristan more freedom to police themselves. Instead of the intended reduction in cross-border incursions, the insurgency within Afghanistan has forced NATO on the defensive with accusations that Taliban militia have regrouped inside Pakistan. However, the bloody conclusion to the stand-off between Pakistan security forces and Islamist extremists based in the Red Mosque in Islamabad prompted the tribal leaders to withdraw from their side of the agreement, and raised tensions with Islamist opposition parties.

Child at Jalozai refugee camp © Catholic Relief Services

Refugee camps along the Afghan border, long filled by Afghans fleeing from the Taliban and war with Russia, have had their numbers swollen further as the US action developed. However, since 2002, a vast number of 3 million refugees have returned to Afghanistan. A UN Refugee Agency registration process completed in early 2007 identified 2.1 million refugees remaining in Pakistan together with an estimated further 400,000 unregistered. These numbers represent a massive logistical challenge which inevitably creates tension with host cities and communities. The UN Refugee Agency and the Government of Pakistan have announced that all camps will close by 2009 but there are doubts as to the willingness of many of the refugees to return to the uncertainties of life in Afghanistan.
Conflict

Another factor influencing Pakistan’s approach to the war against terror may have been the reassurance of a continued even-handed attitude by the US towards the longstanding and bitter dispute with India over Jammu and Kashmir. The dispute, which remains the primary excuse for vast military spending and nuclear sabre-rattling on both sides, has its origins in the 1947 partition. The people of Kashmir and Pakistan, however, have never accepted the Indian claim and the region has been cause of wars between the two bitter rivals in 1948, 1965 and 1971. The frontier dividing Pakistan and India in Kashmir is known as the Line of Control (LoC) or ceasefire line, indicating that a peace settlement remains elusive and that Kashmir is still a flashpoint for South Asia.

However, hostilities have ceased since the development of Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) in 2003 which included the restoration of road and bus links - and the October 2005 earthquake further encouraged the two countries to soften their stance. The LoC, which used to be heavily guarded by the militaries of the arch-rivals, now has five points opened on humanitarian basis, allowing the people on both sides of the border to meet. And towards the end of 2006 Musharraf was floating the radical idea that Pakistan might even concede its claim over the disputed region.

Whilst there is this respite on the Indian border, Musharraf's government is in a quagmire of armed conflict with the people of Balochistan province. Struggling for what the Baloch chieftains say are the rights of the province usurped by the capital, private armies are pitted against Pakistani military. Separatist leaders claim the province has been deprived of its due share of the rewards of natural gas and other resources. The 2006 killing of anti-government renegade Nawab Akbar Bugti suggests that Musharraf, whose regime sees a hidden foreign hand behind the turmoil, has given the insurgents a stern warning.
Human Rights

Under General Musharraf the human rights situation in Pakistan has remained grim. Domestic violence against women, sectarian strife, arbitrary detention of political opponents and suspects under the new Anti-Terrorism Act, use of the death penalty, lack of protection for minorities – all continue. The country’s ranking in the Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders has plunged almost to the bottom thanks to increasing tendencies to clamp down on media critical of the government. On the one hand the government uses its might to quell any signs of "resistance", on the other hand religious intolerance has been growing without check, even though Musharraf calls for harmony and enlightened moderation.

Under international pressure, the government has made a start in introducing effective legislation to end traditions which ignore even the most basic rights of women. In November 2006 parliament passed the Protection of Women bill amid severe criticism from MMA fundamentalists who boycotted the proceedings and threatened to resign. The bill aims to put a stop to the more extreme impact of the controversial Hudood ordinances introduced in 1979 which made it almost impossible for a woman to prove a charge of rape.

Children working in Pakistan © Manos Unidas

Traditions of bonded and child labour have also proved resistant to change, given the continued levels of poverty which underpin their continuity. Official figures suggest that over 3 million children are involved but data is unreliable and civil society groups believe this figure to be greatly understated. Over one million labourers are thought to be bonded to an employer, particularly in brick kilns. The common feature of these and other abuses of civilian rights in Pakistan is the failure of legislation introduced or promised by the government to have any impact.
Environment

Oiled beach in Karachi © WWF

The most intractable environmental problems in Pakistan are caused by underdevelopment, explosive population growth, poverty and corrupt governance. The priority awarded to economic growth is such that, even where environmental regulations exist, enforcement has been lax resulting in a wide range of grave environmental problems and a deficient institutional framework.

Waiting for water © Catholic Relief Services

Unsustainable development and neglected infrastructure have seriously undermined the natural water cycle in Pakistan to the extent that the country may become water-deficient within five years if appropriate action is not taken. Behind the challenge of the overall water supply lies the human problem that only 63% of people have access to clean water and 40% to safe sanitation. Attempts to address the issue with mega-projects such as the controversial Kalabagh dam have run into strong popular objections – the division of water resources between Sindh and Punjab provinces proving to be contentious. The construction of dams has also been responsible for the elimination of potentially protective mangroves, again unchallenged by the authorities despite the devastation of the Asian tsunami. The government's Medium Term Development Framework for 2005-2010 identifies water and sanitation as a key target, promising "water for all". World Bank estimates of the cost of addressing overall water scarcity issues in Pakistan are however astronomic.

Government authorities in the Punjab, the most populated but alarmingly polluted province of Pakistan, promise to take measures for curbing air pollution. But environmentalists say things are not expected to change, citing lack of political will as the reason for growing air pollution in Punjab cities, a major cause of premature deaths in Pakistan.



Shazad Ali is a sports journalist for DAWN, Pakistan's most widely circulated English language newspaper. He has a Masters in International Relations at Karachi University and undertakes online volunteering assignments for UN Volunteers, the Saratoga Foundation for Women Worldwide and the Professional Education Organization International (PEOI).

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