OneWorld.net (U.S.)

UNITED NATIONS, Jul 16 (OneWorld) - Several pressure groups campaigning for peace in the troubled region of Darfur are welcoming Monday's move toward indicting Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir for genocide and war crimes.

Will Bashir be arrested?"Charging President Al-Bashir for the hideous crimes in Darfur shows that no one is above the law," said Richard Dicker, an expert on international law who works with Human Rights Watch (HRW), a group that monitors and reports on rights abuses around the world.

Dicker and other rights activists, many of whom aggressively lobbied for the establishment of the six-year-old International Criminal Court (ICC), think the prosecutor's decision to charge the Sudanese president will help bring justice and peace in Darfur.

"The people of Darfur are strongly supportive of holding those responsible for genocide and crimes against humanity accountable, and the ICC is the only mechanism capable of fulfilling that role at this time," said Gerald LeMelle, director of the Washington, DC-based lobbying group Africa Action.

Added Don Kraus of Citizens for Global Solutions: "The coming arrest warrants illustrate the ICC's concrete efforts for Darfur's victims. The Court is continuing to do its part. The United States and the international community must now do theirs."

Africa Action, Citizens for Global Solutions, and Human Rights Watch are among the many international human rights groups that have long been calling for tough international action against the government leaders in Sudan who have allegedly backed Janjaweed militia attacks on innocent civilians in Darfur.

Prior to his request Monday for a warrant to arrest Al-Bashir, the ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo told the UN Security Council in June that he had solid evidence against the Khartoum regime and its plan to use military and intelligence agencies in Darfur.

In his briefing to the 15-country UN Council last December, Ocampo said the Sudanese government was persistent in its refusal to cooperate with the ICC while "massive crimes" were still being committed in Darfur. The Council declined to take any action at that time.

Despite the presence of some 9,000 UN peacekeepers in Darfur, reports from humanitarian groups point out that the government-backed militias are still engaged in armed violence against innocent citizens.

Darfuri children displaced by war © International Rescue Committee / Gerald MartoneIn the past four years, the armed conflict in Darfur has claimed nearly half a million lives. UN estimates suggest that at least 2 million people have been forced to leave their homes as a result of violence, rape, and looting by the Janjaweed militia.

The prosecutor's application for a warrant to arrest Al-Bashir stems from a March 2005 Security Council referral of the case to the ICC. Last year, in response to that referral the Court ordered Sudan to hand over one of its government ministers and a Janjaweed leader accused of committing war crimes. The government refused.

In criticizing Sudan for its refusal to hand over the two suspects last month, rights groups raised questions about China's role and said Khartoum would comply only if Beijing hardened its stance on Darfur.

Observers say the United States and its Western allies in the UN Security Council want Al-Bashir to be prosecuted, but China and Russia are opposed to his indictment. Both Moscow and Beijing have strong economic and military ties with Khartoum, and many believe those dealings are influencing their votes on human rights issues.

ICC judges will now have to weigh the evidence provided by the prosecutor before they decide whether or not to issue an arrest warrant against Al-Bashir. Experts say the process could take several months.

For its part Tuesday, the Sudanese government described the prosecutor's request as politically motivated, saying the evidence against Al-Bashir was false. It said the ICC had no jurisdiction in Sudan and that, therefore, it would not cooperate with the Court.

Like the United States and China, Sudan is not a signatory to the treaty that established the world court for crimes against humanity, war crimes, and genocide. Over 100 other countries have ratified the treaty, consenting to the Court's jurisdiction.

Unlike LeMelle and Dicker, who think the prosecutor's move will add to the international pressure on the government in Khartoum, some experts on international relations are warning that a move to arrest Al-Bashir could backfire.

"The problem for international policy makers is that the prosecutor's legal strategy also poses major risks for the fragile peace and security environment in Sudan, with a real chance of greatly increasing the suffering of very large numbers of its people," said Nick Grono of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG).

Moreover, hardliners on all sides may be "reinforced," Grono added, noting that the government and other actors may also react to a possible arrest warrant in ways that could undermine the fragile peace agreement between the northern and southern parts of Sudan. That peace, which has largely held since 2005, brought an end to decades of fighting in that part of the country.

In the short term, the possibility of the execution of arrest warrants against Al-Bashir is "remote," said Grono, adding that the best approach for the Security Council would be "to take advantage of the likely two- to three-month window before the judges' decision on the arrest warrant, to asses whether genuine and substantial progress is in fact being made in stopping the continuing violence for which the governing regime bears responsibility."

Meanwhile, in rejecting the prosecutor's request, the Sudanese government called for the League of Arab States to hold an emergency meeting on the issue of the prosecutor's request for an arrest warrant. The League, according to diplomats, is likely to support Al-Bashir's regime in its opposition to the ICC's jurisdiction claims.

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