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OneWorld.net note: Both candidates are planning to leave a "residual" U.S. military force in Iraq, says the former president of the Council for a Livable World, but Obama's statements on the issue have so far shown more strategic thinking than McCain's, explains a military policy analyst for the organization.

• The "residual force" is the likely key to U.S. policy in Iraq regardless of who gets elected, says former Council for a Livable World President Jerome Grossman, noting that: "The U.S. is the dominant military, economic, and political power on the planet and surely wants to remain in that position." Grossman also thinks "it is inconceivable that the U.S. would give up its control of the Middle East, an area that contains more than 40 percent of the oil reserves on earth."

• In a major foreign policy speech in July, Obama "ask[ed] Americans to take a step back and think strategically about the national security problems facing the United States," explains military policy analyst Travis Sharp, contrasting Obama's approach with McCain's frequent use of "politically charged" rhetoric on the campaign trail.

• This article has been included in OneWorld.net's "Campaign '08" edition of Perspectives magazine, which examines where the major presidential candidates stand on key issues affecting all the world's people. Add your thoughts on the campaign today and get the background from experts on foreign policy, national security, foreign aid, global health, the environment, and much more.

Obama and McCain on Iraq

Published July 13, 2008 on Relentless Liberal

By Jerome Grossman

U.S. Sen. John McCain tours Haditha, Iraq, with U.S. Marines. © Cpl. Erin A. Kirk, U.S. Marine Corps (via U.S. Army Central Web site)Whether Barack Obama or John McCain is elected president, it is difficult to imagine a full withdrawal of American troops from Iraq.

McCain insists on complete victory, refuses to ask Iraq's leaders to take responsibility for their own future, and has completely changed his own stated position that he would leave Iraq when the Iraqis ask us.

Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki has indeed asked for a set timetable for US withdrawal but the silence from Bush, McCain and Obama has been deafening. McCain has forsworn deadlines for troop withdrawal without support for al-Maliki's position.

Obama's reaction is loaded with hedges:” If current trends continue and we are at a position where we continue to see reductions in violence and continue to see some improvements on the part of the Iraqi army and Iraqi police, then my hope would be that we could draw down in a deliberate fashion in consultation with the Iraqi government at a pace that is determined in consultation with General Petraeus and the other commanders on the ground."

Obama approaches his consultations with the military in a defensive position. “Precisely because I have not served in uniform, I am somebody who strongly believes I have to earn the trust of men and women in uniform." Does this sentiment weaken the historic civilian control of the US military?

MSNBC's crack reporter David Gregory interprets Obama: "When Obama says we have to be as careful getting out as we were careless getting in, that's the line, that's a signal that says he's not yanking (troops) out right away." Careless is a gross understatement, leaving unsaid the misrepresentations and lies on intelligence, on weapons of mass destruction, as well as the US ignoring the refusal of the Security Council of the United Nations to give legal sanctions to the US invasion.

In any case, both McCain and Obama plan for a residual US military force to fight Al Qaeda and insurgents, to train the Iraqi military, and to protect the US Embassy and US military bases in Iraq. That is the likely key to US policy in Iraq under either administration. The US is the dominant military, economic and political power on the planet and surely wants to remain in that position. It is inconceivable that the US would give up its control of the Middle East, an area that contains more than 40% of the oil reserves on earth. We now know that the supply of oil is finite, that modern society cannot function without oil, that the price of oil can be stretched to extraordinary heights. We cannot and will not walk away from the trillions of dollars involved and the power over all other nations we can exercise by control of oil.

After the investments the US has made in life, treasure and reputation, after the incompetence of the Bush administration in destroying the system it had in place for dominating the area without US troops, the American empire is surely not going to divest itself of this incalculable asset. No other empire in human history has done that. We won't either.

Jerome Grossman, chairman emeritus of Council for a Livable World, served as Chairman of the Council from 1991 to 2006 and was executive director and President of both the Council and Council for a Livable World Education Fund from 1980 - 1991.

Iraq and the Presidential Candidates: Chess vs Checkers

By Travis Sharp

Originally published in Foreign Policy in Focus on July 17, 2008

In the tit-for-tat, he-said she-said world of modern presidential campaigns, it is rare for a candidate to ask Americans to take a step back and think strategically about the national security problems facing the United States. This week, however, Barack Obama did exactly that, offering the strongest evidence yet that he is a more capable strategic thinker than John McCain.

Barack Obama discusses Iraq at a town hall meeting in Iowa. © Barack Obama for PresidentIn a wide-ranging foreign policy speech on Tuesday, Obama took a giant leap toward institutionalizing his long-running commitment to end the war in Iraq. In the key portion of his remarks, Obama said:

At some point, a judgment must be made. Iraq is not going to be a perfect place, and we don’t have unlimited resources to try to make it one. We are not going to kill every al Qaeda sympathizer, eliminate every trace of Iranian influence, or stand up a flawless democracy before we leave – General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker acknowledged this to me when they testified last April. That is why the accusation of surrender is false rhetoric used to justify a failed policy. In fact, true success in Iraq – victory in Iraq – will not take place in a surrender ceremony where an enemy lays down their arms. True success will take place when we leave Iraq to a government that is taking responsibility for its future – a government that prevents sectarian conflict, and ensures that the al Qaeda threat which has been beaten back by our troops does not reemerge. That is an achievable goal if we pursue a comprehensive plan to press the Iraqis stand up.

Obama is offering concrete objectives for the United States in Iraq, along with a realistic vision for what the endgame might look like. As he said, there is never going to be any kind of "surrender ceremony," regardless of how often John McCain tosses around politically-charged words like “defeat” and “retreat.”

Obama went on from there to discuss his plans for winding down the war, including his willingness to "make tactical adjustments as we implement this strategy" and "consult with commanders on the ground and the Iraqi government." This willingness to refine his policies means that Obama could actually bring most U.S. combat brigades home sooner than the 16 months he has estimated it will take, if accelerated withdrawal was determined to be an acceptable course of action.

Finally, Obama reiterated his plan to leave residual U.S. forces in Iraq in order to perform specific missions, such as targeted strikes against Al Qaeda, protecting American diplomats, and training Iraqi Security Forces. This concept of an “over-the-horizon” residual force in Iraq has been a staple of Democratic proposals for years now. Senators Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and Carl Levin of Michigan have repeatedly included residual forces in their legislative proposals to end the war. Some military experts question the wisdom of a residual presence, however, because they argue that a small number of U.S. soldiers in Iraq will be attractive targets for insurgents.

Forced to respond to his rival’s major address, McCain chose to criticize Obama for articulating his Iraq strategy before his scheduled trip to the country this summer. “In my experience, fact-finding missions usually work best the other way around: First you assess the facts on the ground, then you present a new strategy,” McCain said. McCain apparently thinks his trip to Iraq last year – where 100 soldiers in armored Humvees redirected traffic so McCain could be escorted around a Baghdad market in a bullet-proof vest while attack helicopters circled overhead – is a realistic way to assess the facts on the ground.

In response to another question on Tuesday, McCain said, “Today we know Sen. Obama was wrong. The 'surge' has succeeded.” This short sentiment, which could perhaps be translated as “Mission Accomplished for The Surge,” constitutes McCain’s favorite talking point on the war. It also clearly demonstrates McCain’s ongoing conflation of military tactics with military strategy.

General David Petraeus's tactical adjustments have enabled U.S. troops to reduce violence in targeted geographical areas of Iraq. However, limited military management will never lead to the type of World War II-style "victory" bandied about in our political discourse. Short of permanently occupying or totally destroying and rebuilding Iraq, as was the case in Germany, Japan, and South Korea – examples McCain frequently offers as models – America's ability to construct an oasis of democracy in the Middle East at the butt of a gun is a mirage.

Political events in Iraq continue to possess an internal momentum that the United States is unable to definitively influence. Kurdish lawmakers this week walked out of the Iraqi Parliament to protest a draft provincial election law. Sunnis, who boycotted the 2005 elections, are still isolated from the decision-making process, which makes reform efforts impossible because the elected Parliament is not currently representative. American calls for the passage of key pieces of legislation have gone mostly unmet, with Iraqi lawmakers content to operate on Baghdad's clock, not Washington's. The referendum over the status of Kirkuk has been repeatedly postponed due to intractable differences between the contending parties' bargaining positions.

Most ominously, the predominately Sunni sahwa movement, known as the "Sons of Iraq," is having its integration into the regular Iraqi Security Forces delayed or ignored by the Shiite-dominated central government. This has led to frustration in the sahwas, and may soon lead members to conclude that the $300 dollars a month paid by the United States just isn't worth it. The loss of cooperation with the sahwas – isolated, angry, and 90,000 strong – would leave a disgruntled and well-armed Sunni army in place ready to fight its Shiite enemies.

What McCain doesn’t seem to understand, but Obama clearly does, is that the United States must not allow a divided Iraqi government to determine the timetable for U.S. withdrawal. The President must do what is in the best interests of the United States and make the difficult strategic choices, not hide behind commanders like General Petraeus and defer to them on key decisions. Doing so is a subversion of civilian control of the military, a time-honored principle in American government.

The purpose of the surge, as President Bush said, was to provide breathing space for Iraqis to achieve political reconciliation. Tactical military successes under the surge are to be applauded, but political results are the ultimate objective. Lacking political progress, the United States is simply surging to nowhere.

Iraqi hearts and minds have never been with the United States, and they will never be, no matter how many troops we commit or sahwa movements we fund. Iraqis must develop an allegiance to a representative government capable of compromising to achieve political reconciliation. As long as U.S. forces remain in the country, Iraqis will remain focused on expelling the occupier, not developing allegiance to their government.

Barack Obama demonstrated this week that he is thinking several moves ahead on the chessboard in Iraq. John McCain seems content to remind us how great he is at checkers.

Travis Sharp is the Military Policy Analyst at the Council for a Livable World in Washington, D.C. and is an analyst for Foreign Policy In Focus.