OneWorld.net (U.S.)

Whatever the outcome at the 2005 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in May 2005, the United States will still need to take drastic action to shore up the crisis of confidence in the treaty. For over thirty-five years, the NPT has ensured that the numbers of states that possess nuclear weapons are limited to a handful. Today, there is less confidence that this is the case.

The United States is the mainstay of the NPT, and its support for the treaty is integral to its continued relevance. Unfortunately, the G.W. Bush Administration has not taken the necessary lead to ensure that this vital treaty, often referred to as a cornerstone of U.S. security, remains viable. In emphasizing independent efforts that sometimes run contrary to the spirit of the treaty, the U.S. has missed a golden opportunity to strengthen the NPT. Instead of using the time leading up to the review conference to ensure a substantive outcome, President Bush has focused on violations by states pursuing nuclear weapons.

The U.S. government has also been keen to avoid taking the blame for failure. However, its efforts to develop new nuclear weapons, as well as to revitalize its current arsenal, has sent the message to non-nuclear weapons states that the U.S. has no serious intention of honoring its disarmament commitments under the treaty. In this situation, other non-nuclear states also have little incentive to honor their own commitments not to develop nuclear weapons.

The NPT regime has received a series of body blows beginning with the 1991 discovery that Iraq was only months away from making a nuclear bomb. Then there is the case of North Korea, which has withdrawn from the NPT, but has the capability to make, and has possibly begun making, nuclear weapons. A further area of concern is the nuclear black market run by the Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan, which operated for years without being detected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). With these developments, non-weapon state members are increasingly unconvinced that they are being protected.

This is not to say that the treaty is without value. Historically, the treaty has been an important bulwark against nuclear proliferation, and the IAEA proved its merit with its correct assessment that Iraq had not reconstituted its nuclear program, even if the Bush Administration did not accept this view.

Although the NPT is in grave danger, there is still opportunity to preserve the regime in the aftermath of the review conference. A solution for the North Korean problem would help to at least temporarily ensure the treaty’s survival. The United States must contrive a negotiating position that will bring the North Koreans into detailed negotiations, whether in the six-power framework or bilaterally.

In the longer term, the United States needs to make it clear that it is serious about its commitment to reduce its nuclear arsenal by abandoning plans to develop new nuclear weapons and to resume nuclear testing. Active U.S. support for the NPT, both during the conference and, as importantly, beyond, can help reinvigorate this embattled treaty.

Guy Stevens, Chief Operating Officer Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation