Preventing Conflict: Words to Deeds?

Fri., Apr. 21, 2006

�In a globalized world, we are inevitably drawn into conflicts�either economically or militarily�and the burdens are vast and growing. Unless a better system of conflict prevention is developed, the burden on the United States to respond to instability and conflict will only become progressively greater, both economically and militarily, as could the cost in American lives.�
Lee H. Hamilton, President and Director
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

The UN reports that more than 3 million people have died in armed conflicts since 1990. It�s difficult to grasp a number like this, but beyond every death lays a story of personal tragedy. And, beyond the immediate human cost caused by conflict, there are many other �spillover� effects from conflicts, such as environmental destruction and arms trafficking. Additionally, tens of thousands of individuals�whether they are operating in �coalitions of the willing� or UN-sponsored forces�are making great personal sacrifices to try to bring peace to places as diverse as Sudan, Haiti, Kashmir, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq, the Golan Heights, and Cyprus, just to name a few.

Refugees are one outcome of conflict. Here, Kosovar refugees flee their homeland in April 1999.

But what if these troops never had to be deployed in the first place? Indeed, the international community has recently begun paying more attention to initiatives to stem conflicts before they spiral out of control, or, in the worst case, result in genocide. For one thing, preventing violent conflict is a lot less expensive than dealing with the chaos after a conflict erupts. Take Rwanda, for example. Researchers estimated that the overall assistance to Rwanda in the wake of the 1994 genocide was approximately $4.5 billion. Preventive action�such as reinforcing peace operations before the crisis erupted�would, in contrast, have cost about $1.3 billion.

Despite the potential cost savings of nipping conflicts in the bud, immediate crises still tend to take precedence in the minds of policy makers, leaving scant resources for preventive work. Hence, the �costs of failure to prevent deadly conflicts have continued to mount in Bosnia, Congo, East Timor, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and elsewhere,� says Ken Menkhaus, a professor of political science at Davidson College in North Carolina and an expert on conflict prevention work.

But there are positive developments too. As Menkhaus and other experts note, governments are facing gradually growing public pressure to prevent genocide, war crimes, and deadly conflicts. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are becoming more involved in conflict mediation and there is mounting discussion about the topic among key international institutions working in development and diplomacy.

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