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Millennium Development Goals

Members of Ethiopia's Karo tribe © Christophe Ratier / Geographical

Ethiopia is consistently positioned close to the bottom of the annual UNDP Human Development Index. An interesting feature of the government’s progress report for the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) published in 2004 is its willingness to place an estimate on the public spending cost necessary to achieve the Goals. The figure quoted is a staggering $37 billion. The improbability of raising such a sum alone provides the telling answer to questions about the likelihood of achieving all of the Goals by 2015.

However, some spectacular progress has been achieved, especially in education where primary school enrolment has increased from 37% in 1996 to 86% in 2005, with 2,000 new schools built since 2002. In the 5 years to 2005, infant and child mortality rates also improved although they remain very high. The specialist UK charity WaterAid says that efforts to achieve the Goal for water and sanitation are “way off track” with access in rural areas still below 20%. 70,000 latrines will need to be built every month between now and 2015 to meet the sanitation target.

The dominance of emergency aid rather than development aid has contributed to difficulties so far in finding solutions with sustainable impact. In 2004, the United States provided $500 million in food aid, contrasting with just $4 million towards development of agriculture. Jeffrey Sachs, UN Special Advisor on MDGs, has commented that Ethiopia requires both a significant increase in development assistance and reform of its infrastructure if the MDGs are to be achieved.

Food Security

Hunger in Ethiopia © New Internationalist

Food security remains the greatest concern in Ethiopia with UN estimates suggesting that 42 million people receive below the minimum nutritional requirement. While the country continues to suffer the ravages of successive drought and floods and has received millions of dollars in emergency food aid since the severe famines in 1984, the root causes of hunger and poverty - insecure and inadequate land tenure and lack of investment in rural infrastructure amongst others - have not been adequately addressed.

Nevertheless, the government has shown its willingness to become more accountable for the 7 million people classed as chronically food insecure, largely

Drought at Denane, Ethiopia © Rachel Stabb / Oxfam Great Britain

in the highlands region where drought is most unrelenting. They qualify for the “Productive Safety Net Program" which provides food and cash in return for labour. In addition the government grasped the nettle of a resettlement program starting in 2003 which aims to move over 2 million people to more productive lands. Both these strategies are fraught with difficulty and their long term potential is questionable.

The 2007 harvest is expected to be 50% above the 5 year average due to an increase in rainfall, but over 1.3 million people will continue to need emergency food aid during the year, over 70% in the Somali region.
Health

Man carrying his sick daughter, Gode, Ethiopia © United Nations Children's Fund

There are fewer than 2,000 doctors in Ethiopia, the ratio of one per 37,000 people being one of the lowest in the world. The country's health problems are mostly linked to nutritional deficiency and preventable diseases. But poor access to health care services and low levels of education impede progress. Malaria, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and women and children’s health remain the major issues. With more than 4 million cases reported yearly, malaria is the leading cause of death. The government has launched a five-year anti-malaria plan which aims to halve the disease by 2010 and will cost close to $450 million.

With an estimated 2.2 million people living with HIV/AIDS, Ethiopia accounts for 4% of the global figure. HIV/AIDS infection rates continue to rise, especially in urban areas, despite the concerted efforts on prevention and treatment by the Ministry of Health and international development organizations such as UNAIDS, UNDP and the World Health Organization. The government has come up with the staggering estimate of $19 billion as the cost of defeating the virus.
Politics

Meles Zenawi © United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network

In 1991, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) toppled the authoritarian government that had ruled the country for 17 years and has ever since remained the governing party. Meles Zenawi, head of the party and elected Prime Minister of Ethiopia, has promoted a policy of ethnic federalism. There are 50 other registered political parties, most of which are small and ethnically based.

The lack of government capacity and coordination combined with its control over information and media has slowed the process of democratization and the empowerment of civil society. This has been painfully illustrated in the debacle of the May 2005 general election which plunged the country into violence and political chaos. The main opposition group, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), protested that the poll “won” by the EPRDF was unfair, a claim subsequently upheld by a European Union report which identified irregularities in vote counting.

Student and opposition supporters took to the streets in protest in June 2005 and again in November when the CUD refused to participate in the new parliament. Heavy-handed action by police and troops resulted on both occasions in dozens of deaths and thousands of detentions. A core group of 38 opposition leaders, journalists and civil rights activists have been convicted for "outrages against the constitution" and face potentially long prison sentences.

For Meles Zenawi, a member of the prestigious Africa Commission which recently placed so much emphasis on high standards of governance, the situation is acutely embarrassing. Some major donors have announced suspension or diversion of aid funding away from core government budget support.
Human Rights

Ethiopian armed police officers © United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network

A national Commission of Inquiry into the post-election violence found that, despite 193 deaths of innocent bystanders, the police and security forces acted within the law. However, the original chairman, Woldemicheal Meshesha, resigned and fled the country, accusing the government of putting unreasonable pressure on the commissioners to exonerate government forces from their excessive behaviour.

Ethiopia’s human rights record is tainted with police brutality, torture, illegal detention, repression of political parties and abuse of ethnic minorities. For example, violence against Anuak people in the southern Gambella region by the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) has been reported by various human rights groups. Ironically, the Ethiopian judiciary has just completed the trial of former dictator Colonel Mengistu Haile Mariam and his henchmen for genocide of political opponents in the 1970s. The guilty verdict and life sentence may be thwarted as Mengistu is in exile in Zimbabwe where Robert Mugabe has made it clear that any extradition request is unlikely to be granted.
Information and Media

That journalists are amongst those undergoing trial is little surprise as defamation or "false news" is a crime under Ethiopian law and the country has a long history of suppressing opposition media. The severity of the charges in the current case is of particular concern and Ethiopia has been cited as one of the worst offenders on press freedom by international watchdogs. Half of the newspapers in Addis Ababa have been closed down since the May 2005 election and websites and blogs critical of the Ethiopian government have been blocked in the country since May 2006.

The liberalization of the media since Meles came to power has been very slow and protests have been lodged from both domestic and foreign media associations on a proposed press law. The independent print press is represented by the EFJA, and includes newspapers such as Capital and Ethiopian Reporter, but there are no private radio or television stations as the government retains control of all telecommunication and broadcasting services.

Ethiopia’s information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure is one of the least developed in the world, with 60% of the telephone lines concentrated in the capital city, Addis Ababa. The difficulty in implementing ICT as a tool for development is in part due to the low adult literacy rate and the diversity of languages (82 different languages are spoken in the country). Some efforts have been made to adapt the Ethiopic alphabet, for ICT purposes.
Conflict

Ethiopian refugees queue for aid © Michael Dunlea/The Express / Christian Aid

The entire region of the Horn of Africa is at risk of destabilisation and Ethiopia is potentially engaged on two fronts. In such a diverse and large country, internal conflict is also quick to ignite. Despite its poverty, Ethiopia possesses well-trained army and air forces, willingly equipped by the global arms trade.

There is a long history of tension with Somalia over the disputed Ogaden province, whose people feel little cultural affinity with Ethiopia and express their desire for independence through the rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). Although the ONLF denies connections with the militant Islamist movement in Somalia, Ethiopia’s backing for the internationally recognized transitional Somali government emerged dramatically in 2006 as its military launched attacks against Islamist forces. Overwhelmed, the Islamists were ejected from their Mogadishu power base in December 2006. Ethiopian troops seem likely to maintain their presence in Somalia until a peacekeeping force can be assembled by the African Union.

Fears that Eritrean support for the UIC would result in a proxy war in Somalia have not yet materialized. Conflict with Eritrea has been a dominant and painful experience for Ethiopia since 1962 when former emperor Haile Selassie annexed what was then an autonomous region established by UN resolution. Eritrea fought for its independence for the next 30 years, ultimately succeeding in 1993. However, border disputes escalated into a further war in 1998 which resulted in over 100,000 deaths and significant economic losses on both sides.

The ceasefire agreed in 2000 is monitored by the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) but serious tensions resurfaced towards the end of 2005. Eritrea lost patience with the failure to implement the recommendations of an independent border commission and breached the ceasefire by moving troops into the temporary security zone. The Commission's threat to mark out the boundary in line with their proposals by November 2007 has led to Ethiopia's belated acceptance, although this is accompanied by an insistence on further talks. The UN is exasperated by both countries. A further legacy of the conflict is the presence of two million landmines in Ethiopia causing hundreds of deaths since the end of hostilities.
Economy

Nechasar National Park; evictions for tourism © Refugees International

Ethiopia’s economy is sustained primarily through subsistence farming which engages over 80% of the total population, but frequent droughts and poor agricultural systems have undermined this sector’s productivity. Coffee accounted for 48% exports in 2006 - Ethiopia’s innovative strategy to trademark its premium coffee brands may blaze a trail for other developing countries to win a greater share of product revenues, especially since the settlement of the very public dispute with the US multinational, Starbucks.

Despite the $3.3 billion in debt relief which was awarded to the country in 2004 under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative, the residual heavy debt burden, volatile coffee prices and the war with Eritrea have all hindered economic growth. The promise of further unconditional debt cancellation granted at the 2005 Edinburgh G8 Summit has now been fulfilled, despite concern that Ethiopia might be squeezed out by IMF prevarication.

Under the conditionality for debt relief over the last decade, Ethiopia launched new policies to reform the economic structure and adopt a market-oriented system, including privatization. The challenge lies in further institutional reform, better governance and improving the civil service. The country has experienced soaring interest from foreign firms to explore and develop oil, attracting strong opposition and attack from regional ethnic groups especially in the contested Ogaden region.
Environment

Family collecting water from an Oxfam well in Hadawe, Ethiopia © Rachel Stabb / Oxfam Great Britain

The temperate climate and the rich flora and fauna have long been Ethiopia’s most valued assets. But almost 80% of Ethiopia’s trees have been cut down in the last 30 years for fuel, construction and fencing, causing serious environmental degradation. Eucalyptus trees, introduced in the late 19th century, have been worsening the situation, as they tend to leech and erode the soil. As concerns mount about the impact of climate change on Ethiopia's fragile ecosystem, there are plans to plant over 50 million trees during 2007.



Mahlet Yifru was born and raised in Ethiopia and now lives in New York. She is a graduate of NYU's Wagner Graduate School of Public Administration, where she majored in international nonprofit management.
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