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Millennium Development Goals in Timor-Leste

Citizens of Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste (previously known as East Timor) has made a late start in tackling the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), having achieved independence only in May 2002. Consequently baseline data for the Goals is taken from surveys conducted around the time of independence rather than 1990 as for other countries. For example, over 40% of the population fell below the poverty line in 2001 (assessed by ability to buy food and basic essentials). The first MDG target aims to reduce the rate of extreme poverty (assessed by ability to buy food) to 14% from a level of 21% effective in 2001.

Even this modest target will present a formidable challenge. Although there have been no subsequent reliable surveys, it is apparent that poverty has been rising rather than falling in the years since 2001. UNDP estimates that achievement of the poverty targets for Timor-Leste will cost $48 million per year, while fulfilment of the other Goals will cost two to three times that amount. The annual population growth rate of 3.4%, one of the highest in the world, boosts these estimates. Whilst oil and gas revenue from the Timor Gap raises prospects for the sustainable and equitable national growth that will be essential to generate such resources, the 2006 violence in the capital has undermined all development programmes.

The World Bank reports that the post-referendum violence perpetrated by Indonesian forces in 1999 destroyed 70% of health facilities in Timor-Leste and led to the departure overseas of all but 20 doctors. Less than 50% of women giving birth have assistance from a skilled health professional and maternal mortality rates remain very high by the standards of the region. Half of the population does not have access to safe drinking water and 60% lack adequate sanitation.

Some progress has however been made in education and health – the consequence of a “pro-poor” National Development Plan for 2002-2007 whose objectives are consistent with the MDGs. Indeed the government has pledged to commit at least 30% of the national budget to health, education, water and sanitation. Enrolment in primary schools has risen from 50% in 2000 to 80% although adult literacy remains only 50%. Immunisation of children under the age of one has increased from 23% in 2001 to 55% in 2005.

Food Security in Timor-Leste

Irrevocably linked with poverty is the decline in food security in Timor-Leste. In the absence of policies to assist them, farmers are too poor to upgrade their equipment, maintain irrigation or even to purchase seeds. The country lies in a region known to be particularly sensitive to the unpredictable impacts of El Nino and climate change. This combination of factors in 2007 caused a reduction of 30% in cereals and 20% in rice production; in West Timor yields are believed to be down as much as 50%. The country is in any event nowhere near self-sufficient in food and therefore exposed to increasingly expensive imports. 46% of children are assessed to have stunted growth due to malnutrition. The World Food Programme has projected that over 200,000 people, 20% of the population, will need assistance in the “hunger” months leading up to March 2008.
Conflict in Timor-Leste

East Timor's disappeared

This failure to match the achievements in poverty reduction of other countries in the region is the legacy of a generation of bitter conflict. Timor-Leste, a former Portuguese colony seized by Indonesia in 1975, voted in a 1999 referendum to separate from Indonesia after a 24 year resistance struggle for independence. After a transitional period of rule by the UN, Timor-Leste gained its formal independence on 31 May 2002. The Indonesian military committed some of the worst atrocities of the 20th century in Timor-Leste from 1975, culminating in a scorched earth policy on its exit in September 1999, killing 1,300 people and forcibly displacing 250,000 others to West Timor.

Sadly, the fragile new state has been unable to heal deep social fractures caused by the occupation. In April 2006, the dismissal of 600 members of the military Defence Force (FDTL) descended into violent conflict as factions within both the police and FDTL splintered and turned on each other and gang violence swept the capital, Dili. 37 people were killed, 6,000 houses destroyed and over 150,000 displaced into camps in and around the capital.

Refugees returning from West Timor 1999 © UN/UNHCR Photo# 203109C

The finger of blame can be pointed in many directions: an inexperienced army, premature withdrawal of UN forces, political manipulation by elites, an exclusionary process of guerilla demobilisation, an under-resourced police force already criticised for abuse and ill-treatment of detainees, and lingering tensions over allegiances during the occupation. The soldiers dismissed came mostly from the west of the country and their grievances have disclosed bitter resentment between east and west. A United Nations Independent Special Commission of Inquiry into the violence drew attention to fragile state institutions and weak rule of law as contributing to the collapse in order. It also blamed key government figures for fermenting violence, recommending prosecutions.

The violence prompted the return of a UN international peace keeping force (UNMIT), and UN supervision of the police force. A true process of reconciliation has however proved elusive, as evidenced by the reluctance of 100,000 of the displaced persons to return to their homes – a frustrating logjam which is distorting government spending on development as well as distribution of food aid. There have been ongoing, sporadic outbreaks of violence in Dili culminating in near tragedy in February 2008 with the attempted assassinations of both the president and prime minister. However, the leader of the rebel soldiers, Major Reinardo, was killed by bodyguards and the remainder of the rebels are believed to be negotiating surrender terms. With the problems between police and FDTL now addressed by joint command, there are at least some grounds for optimism that human development issues can take centre stage in Timor-Leste.
Human Rights in Timor-Leste

Mass graves in Timor-Leste © Radio Netherlands

Much may depend on greater determination of the government to pursue accountability for human rights abuses. A Commission for Truth and Friendship has been established jointly by Timor-Leste and Indonesia to investigate the events of 1999. It is supposed to issue a final report in early 2008 but UN officials have refused to give evidence as the Commission has powers to grant amnesties even for the most serious crimes.

Similar deadlock handicaps the Reception, Truth and Reconciliation Commission (CAVR), established in 2001 to investigate human rights abuses during the full period of Indonesian occupation. It concluded in its report that Indonesian security forces were responsible for the vast majority of the estimated 102,800 to 201,600 conflict related deaths. It also documents widespread and systematic human rights abuses, including arbitrary detention, torture, mass displacement and sexual violence.

Women demonstrate in Timor-Leste © Penny Tweedie/Panos

However, justice for the victims remains elusive. Under the thumb of its more powerful neighbour, the Timorese government has been reluctant to push for prosecutions. Indonesia’s domestic efforts at addressing crimes in Timor-Leste achieved only one successful prosecution. Disappointingly, governmental real politik is undermining efforts to establish an international tribunal.

Routine justice in Timor-Leste is also inhibited by a weak judiciary that has struggled to deal with serious crimes such as rape and domestic violence. A 2002 survey cited by the UN Population Fund found that 43% of women respondents had experienced some form of domestic violence in the previous year but only 2 per cent had reported it. It also stated that current rates of domestic violence are thought to be as high as during the Indonesian occupation.
Politics in Timor-Leste

Formal political power lies in the unicameral National Parliament of Timor-Leste, for which the Constituent Assembly elections held in 2001 awarded the left wing Fretilin party nearly 60% of the vote, due largely to its central role in the independence struggle. Signs of fading loyalty to Fretilin emerged in the presidential election in May 2007 when its candidate Francisco Guterres was soundly defeated in a run-off with Jose Ramos-Horta, the Nobel Peace laureate. There has been massive relief within Timor-Leste and the wider world at the apparently full recovery of Ramos-Horta from the attempted assassination.

Timor-Leste President Jose Ramos-Horta © United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network

Although the president’s role is largely symbolic, Ramos-Horta was compelled to resolve deadlock over the appointment of a government following parliamentary elections held in June 2007. Former president Xanana Gusmao – the heroic leader of the guerilla army FALINTIL - set up a new political party, the National Congress of Reconstruction Of Timor-Leste (CNRT), to oppose Fretilin. After an inconclusive vote, the president requested a coalition put together by Gusmao to form a government. This Alliance for Parliamentary Majority (AMP) holds 37 seats against Fretilin’s 21. The inference is that the two major leadership figures in Timor-Leste are unhappy with Fretilin’s post independence performance. The 2007 elections were deemed to be free and fair by monitors from the European Union.

There is a healthy and outspoken civil society in Timor-Leste with many former independence activists working on a range of issues. A menagerie of international aid organisations is also present. Multilateral organisations such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank have significant political power in Timor-Leste, having played a central role in designing and monitoring government policy and effectively managing the use of donor funds. Local Timorese organisations have been critical of the priorities, accountability, and impact of the international reconstruction sector in Timor.
The Economy in Timor-Leste

Weak institutional capacity in Timor-Leste derives from the Indonesian exclusion of the Timorese from management positions in the civil service. The shortfall in human capital has handicapped delivery of government spending plans and prolonged a culture of corruption. Timor-Leste’s economy is characterised by sluggish investment of aid funds and oil revenues – inadequate road construction is one example.

85% of the country’s one million people depend on fragile subsistence agriculture for their livelihood. Their interaction with world trade is a handful of beans, quite literally: in 2004 Timor-Leste formally traded $7 million in coffee (out of total, non-oil exports of $8 million). The livelihoods of 40,000 families depend on the fickle global coffee market. While unemployment statistics in a largely agrarian and informal economy are difficult to ascertain, the level of those without paid jobs is between 23% in urban areas and 44 % among youth in Dili. With population growth adding about 14,000 young people each year into a stagnant labour market, economic disenchantment is undoubtedly one of the reasons why social stability is so fragile.

Much of the petroleum wealth in the Timor Sea has been controversially claimed by Australia, despite Timor-Leste being entitled to 100% under the principles of the UN Convention on the Law of Sea. Following successive negotiations in 2006 and 2007 over this longstanding territorial dispute, Timor-Leste is projected to receive $1 billion pa for the next 20 years, a massive proportion of its economy. This revenue should allow Timor-Leste to finance human development free of international debt, provided that the pitfalls of an oil-dependent economy can be avoided.
The Environment in Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste is a mountainous half-island with a monsoonal climate. Seasonal downpours are interrupted by almost seven rainless months per year. Unsustainable logging and slash and burn agricultural practices have exacerbated flooding, landslides and erosion. Such problems add to the difficulties in linking and maintaining the fragile rural infrastructure. Indonesian counter-insurgency tactics also took their toll on the environment with deforestation and forced relocation of communities to low lands. The rate of deforestation during the Indonesian occupation was over 1% per annum. Such significant environmental issues underline Timor’s fragile agricultural system and food insecurity.



The OneWorld Timor-Leste Guide was first published in this format in December 2006 with a text written by Volunteer Editor Ben Moxham

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